Governer of india belives in a significant crisis situation

D Subbarao, Governor of the Reserve bank
of India, believes we are in a significant crisis situation and said the situation in the distant future is uncertain.

Subbarao expects banks to cut lending rates soon. He believes all measures taken by the RBI to ease liquidity were adequate and feels they have yielded some positive impact. He said that it is too early to comment on further rate cuts.

Here is a transcript of D Subbarao's comments in a press conference

On RBI monetary policy
I think the monetary policy measures that we have taken have resulted in some positive outcome. As we had said in the policy statement on Saturday, all the measures of liquidity are appropriate. We reduced repo rate and the reverse repo rate on Saturday and we expect banks to respond to that and cut their lending rates and keep credit flowing for productive sectors.
On Inflation
We make our next review of the policy variables, our projections of core inflation when we make quarterly policy view which is slated for January 27. Certainly the developments will reflect in our assessment.
The Governor after the RBI's central board meet also announced a Rs 9000 crore line of credit to the National Housing Bank or NHB and the Exim bank to revive the housing and export sectors.
He said that a refinance facility of Rs 4000 crore for NHB and Rs 5000 crore facility for Exim bank will be extended at the repo rate of 6.5%.

WHY WE NEED WAR ON TERROR

Here is what our security forces, government and PM should immediately do. However before you read further please promise me that you will share this with at least five people you know. Those five people will in turn share with another five and that way we can let everyone know about what we truly believe in. I believe that all of us together can have a very strong impact and this is a time for us to be united. We need to let everybody know that security is a major concern for all of us. We need our government and politicians to know that we won’t tolerate such weak security and it is high time they listened to us. A strong message needs to be sent by us that it is high time this injustice stops. I assume if you are reading further you will fulfill your promise of sharing this with at least five people.
Declare A War On Terror
We are targets of global terror and still our leadership has no proper strategy or declaration on our war on terror. Why have we not prepared ourselves still to fight this evil? Our politicians have linked terror with politics and votes – instead of fighting it. Today the voter will decide based on security. If my government can’t fight terror – I as a voter will not give my vote to them. We as Indians demand security and immediately want out government to have a strong anti-terror strategy. The terrorists have declared a war and have waged and invasion. It is time to follow the path of Arjuna who went to war with the blessing of Lord Krishna. It isn’t time for discussions – but time to wage war on this evil. What are we waiting for still?
Allocate More Funds
The first thing that needs to be done is allocate more funds towards internal security. India has around $300 billion of foreign reserve. Instead of just keeping the money and earning barely any interest, at least $30 billion should be used to beef up internal security. All this money should be invested bullet proof security–vests, more advanced automatic weapons, surveillance cameras, superior air and navy support, helicopters, advanced drone technologies, etc. To fight terror we need to invest in security and technology. This is much more important than anything else – because without security no investment or no money means anything. Our country doesn’t have a shortage of money and I hope our government seriously acts. There is no time to think – but just to act.
Tougher Terror Laws
We should stop letting terrorists go free and should give them the harshest possible punishment. It is high time we start ignoring so called Human Rights groups who disappear when terrorists slaughter innocent men and women, but tell all of us we should be soft on terror. These terrorists are not humans and deserve no Human Right. More power has to be given to our security forces to not fear and take action against terror. I have been told that we don’t even have a terror law now. Our government can not continue this way – because terror is a major challenge. There should be no mercy shown to terrorists.
Learn From Countries Like America
America after 9/11 invested heavily into internal security and hasn’t had any terrorist attack. We need to learn from them and work with their forces. They are using extremely advanced technology and equipment to make their country a more secure place. No matter what they have done with the economy- we should learn from them in the area of anti-terror security.
Technology
Today the terrorists have automatic weapons, while a large part of our police force is under-equipped only with pistols and lathis. We need to invest in advanced technologies which can be used in situation of urban areas. Today robotic drones that can be controlled by remote control are all available. If we had such technology we could have sent these drones inside hotels to take out terrorists while making sure hostages are safe. We have a brave police force and army – we need to make sure we respect their bravery and give him what they deserve.
Surveillance camera, tapping of phones and e-mail, helicopters, armoured vehicles, navy ships patrolling the coast, bomb detection equipment should all be used. Every major hotel, mall and office needs to have better technology and equipment to fight terror. A hotel like Taj or Oberoi need to have armed security guards who can immediately take out a threat.
Communications Monitoring
Complete monitoring of communications channels is needed. That way we can detect terror attacks before they actually happen. Places like America , UK and Israel all are doing this. We need to do this too. Our freedom is more important than what a few people might think. Every phone and e-mail should be monitored. Major cities should all be captured by surveillance cameras to detect any suspicious movements. Cities like London have invested billions to make sure there are CCTV camera all over the city – from streets to busses to trains. We need stronger intelligence.
Costal Safety
These terrorists came from sea and landed on the coast near the Gateway of India. It is very sad that anyone can enter our country this way. We need a stronger costal guard force which can detect such threats and take them out even before they enter. The entire Western and Eastern coast needs a much larger and stronger force.
Media Awareness and Education
There is a strong need that the media is educated about how they deal and report terror. Unfortunately a large part of the media isn’t trained in dealing with such situations and should not hamper investigation and police action. With the media and civilians around, it becomes difficult for security forces to detect terror and take them out. People need to understand that they should stay of the streets and not surround the area. There is a real threat and it isn’t some sort of tamasha. With civilians surrounding the area things become even more difficult. Education in the areas of evacuation, first aid and group action needs to be given to all of us to cope with terror with better.
Global Elite Force
Terror is a major problem facing all countries in the world. A global elite anti-terror force needs to be formed that will be able to fight terror anywhere in the world. Today we all have a common enemy – we need a common force that will fight this enemy. This force should be able to take out terror targets and suspects anywhere in the world and archaic laws should not slow them down. Anyone who tries to promote feeling of hate or terror – should be eliminated immediately by this force. We can see that the terrorists are all young mis-guided people who have been brainwashed. The people behind this brainwashing need to be eliminated.
This Isn’t About Religion
These people claim to be fighting for Islam and for Muslims – but we all know that this isn’t true. They kill anyone and everyone. This isn’t a time to label terror with religion. It isn’t a time for politicians to fight amongst each other – but unite and fight together as Indians.
Terrorists want to spread hate and divide this world and nation on the basis of religion. We shouldn’t let them succeed at doing this. Today we are all one – and when terror attacks they don’t just kill people of one religion. They kill everybody - Muslims, Hindus, Christians, Jews, Atheists. This is a war of good vs. evil and not about religion. This is a war where we need to fight evil which kills children and destroys families.
We need to pray for everyone who has been affected by terror and hope there is peace. We need to pray that these terrorists are blessed with intelligence that makes them not do such vicious crimes on humanity. We need to pray and hope there is a lot more love on this planet. Irrespective of how much money we have(or don’t have) – we should realize that at the end of the day we are all human beings who want peace, love and a safe and happy life.
I’m sure together we will be able to make this world a better and safer place where there is more happiness and love.

MARKET EXAM

Every day and in every trade, the market gives us an examination. The results are unforgiving. Get the examination question correct and the market gives you money. Get the examination question incorrect and the market takes money from you. Every trading decision to buy, or sell, or just observe is a test of all the skills and knowledge and experience you have accumulated. Unlike on-the-job training, the market gives you no latitude for error, for past successes, or experience. Every test is for real, and every test pass or fail carries the same consequences. It is a demanding task. Over ten weeks we give you a less demanding test – at least in terms of consequences. These questions are designed to help you to evaluate your knowledge about trading and help to identify areas where you may needs to do some more homework.

Sensex breaches 10K, no bottom in sight

It was an absolutely dismal close to this week. The worse nightmare is in, we are in four digits now for the Sensex, the psychological level of 10,000 has been broken for the first time since July 2006 marking a new low for 2008, a multi year low actually and even the Nifty has plunged below its leaning support level of 3,100. So whichever way you look at it, the lows are not holding, fresh lows have happened this week and psychologically important levels have got broken up. 10,000 may just be a level but it makes a lot of difference to see the Sensex at four digits after seeing it at 21,000 just a few months back. So, this bear market is in full flow right now. There are no signs of a bottom yet and we are crumbling with every passing day.

We had a big sell off on Friday and that was led by the power sector with stocks like NTPC, Reliance Infra, Suzlon, Siemens, BHEL, L&T all of them are breaking down. ICICI Bank took a huge knock, Unitech and DLF continue their bottom less fall and other largecap names like Reliance have got hammered up with not too many places to hide, the breadth on Friday has also been quite bad as well.

Crude, monsoon hold key to mkts rally now

I feels that the markets have seen some momentum despite the weakness in the US. There is a large build up in stock futures, which is positive for sentiment.I thinks that the monsoon remains a worry but crude is the biggest risk. One can see further rally if crude falls and monsoon improves.

Suzlon energy-Long term pick

IIFL has recommended buy rating on Suzlon Energy, with 12-month price target of Rs 280, in its report dated 1 August, 2008.
“Suzlon reported consolidated sales of Rs 27.6 billion, up 42% YoY, and PAT of Rs 1.65 billion (excluding MTM losses of Rs 1.64 billion) for 1QFY09. Both were significantly higher than our estimates, mainly due to better than expected growth and higher profitability in the wind business.
With ramp-up in Hansen’s gearbox production capacity, revenue from the gearbox business rose 58% YoY in 1QFY09 and accounted for 28% of Suzlon’s total revenue in the quarter. OPM on gearboxes expanded to 14% from 7% a year ago; consequently, contribution of this business to operating profit rose to 26% from 19% a year ago (details inside). Although WTG sales volumes rose only 7% YoY to 338MW, average per-MW realisation rose 16% YoY to Rs 54.3m/MW. Gross margin also rose to Rs 21m/MW from Rs 15.3m/MW a year ago. Management attributed the increase to: 1) improvement in the product mix; 2) favourable currency impact (INR depreciated against USD, EUR and AUD); and 3) project work. Almost 70% of the YoY increase in the quarter’s operating profit came from the wind business”.
“Suzlon has an order book of 3,039MW, formed mostly of international deliveries. Its order book has stagnated over the last few quarters as it has been unable to increase share of international deliveries. We maintain our FY09ii and FY10ii estimates as we believe that: 1) the current order book is sufficient to secure FY09 revenues; 2) the company has more than 6-8 months to grow its international order book for FY10; and 3) the rupee remains weak against USD and euro”.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Have Politicians Forgotten The Theory Of Karma?
Politically things are not that good in India. I have always believed that whatever good has happened in our country has been because of people like you and me and never because of politicians. During the time of independence we had great people giving up their lives for the freedom of our nation, but after that we had politicians who were not afraid to take away lives for their own benefit. Not letting the economy and the common man prosper is the worst form of mass murder according to me.To be honest I feel that politicians all over the world are the same irrespective of which political party they belong too. However they unfortunately have forgotten the theory of Karma. They have forgotten that as we sow, so shall we reap.For example today our country has extremely high inflation and this is affecting all of us. But does it affect the ministers who are living in castles and have everything paid for with our taxes? Inflation can be reduced significantly if we increased efficiency and supply. We could cut down our consumption of fossil fuels by having a world class mass transit systems in major cities running on nuclear power. Imagine how much nicer it would be if we had a mass transit system like major cities in China. We would all reduce the use of cars and make sure we used the public transport.Instead of doing what is needed, our politicians are busy hurling chairs at each other in the parliament and constantly arguing on petty issues. I find it disgusting when politicians come on TV and take credit for whatever economic growth we have. The sectors which have had growth have had it because of entrepreneurs who in spite of politicians were able to succeed. It has been because of intelligent and hard working people who have made sure their organisations and business grows. All that politicians would have done is eaten money and filled their own Swiss bank accounts.Wrong policies and decisions by the government bodies affect all of us. They affect our investments and our lives. For instance if the nuclear deal doesn’t go through, it would certainly affect our investment grading abroad. A nation whose Prime Minister can’t decide on his own is never an encouraging sign for investors. It might lead to capital rushing out of the country in the short term.I agree that the need for politicians has reduced compared to what it was say twenty years ago and that is been one good thing. But still we have parties like the Left trying to take our country back to the Stone Age. Not that other political parties are great. Personally I am of the view that inflation in India is not just around 11%, but much higher. Figures can be manipulated, and they always are. Just look at the prices of things we use in our daily lives, they have gone up by more than 40% in a matter of a few months.Inflation, political problems, energy crisis, credit crunch, higher interest rates, sub-prime problem are all going to affect the markets. Investors are usually extremely jumpy and do not take rational decisions. Simply on hearing all this there is a flight of capital which has been bringing the markets down. Markets can go down further- I don’t know if they will or they won’t. Most retail investors who do not believe in value and do not bother too much about fundamentals are constantly grumbling and cursing everything now. Many of them have gone bankrupt due to taking leverage in the form of trading in futures. I understand their problem, however I wish that all of them learn from their mistakes and try to use this time as an opportunity to learn more. I too have made such mistakes in the past, but luckily I have learnt from them.For value investors the markets going down is a great opportunity to buy, however the sad part is that most retail investors do not think this way and now even if they do, they might not have sufficient funds to benefit from this. Many will panic and sell and again after a few years will curse their luck for selling so low. My advice to them would be that use this opportunity has a time to start afresh. Every day is a new day and every day gives us the chance to start a new life. Once Edison had his whole lab burnt. Lots of his work and research was there in the lab, but he still was very happy. People were surprised and wondered why is he smiling even though his lab is burnt. He told them that all his mistakes have been burnt and he has the opportunity to start afresh. If you have made mistakes, do not worry and use this time to learn.Less than around 4% of India’s savings goes into the stock markets. As more and more people are educated about investing, this figure is bound to rise. As this figures rises, unethical operators and dirty money belonging to politicians will be less likely to control the stock markets. As more and more people have a stake in our country’s growth politicians will be more responsible to make sure that their decisions are beneficial to investors and the capital markets. This correction has been one of the best things that could have happened for any value investor. It is giving us a chance to buy assets into an economy which still has a long way to go.I am a strong believer in the theory of Karma. If we work hard today, learn more and invest in knowledge we will be rewarded. I was at the BSE building the other day and a good friend there who has been a part of the markets as well as the BSE for several decades very beautifully told me something from the Gita, which he has used in the markets. He told me that the Gita tells us to do our duty and not worry about the fruits and rewards. If we do our duty we will get the fruits either sooner or later. The same applies to the markets. We need to do our work and not worry about the returns in the short term. If a business is good, it shall be discovered by the masses sooner or later. These ideas are not very popular, but these are the very ideas which have stood the test of time. This simple idea runs into every area of our life. Let us all sow seeds of good in every area of our life. Do you agree with this way of thinking?
Keep smiling and feel free to share whatever you read here with friends, family and loved ones!

Infosys FY08 net profit at Rs 4659 cr; EPS at Rs 81.56

Infosys Technologies has announced its fourth quarter and financial year 2008 numbers. It has posted FY08 net profit of Rs 4659 crore as against Rs 3856 crore in FY07 and net sales at Rs 16692 crore versus Rs 13893 crore.
Its FY08 EPS stood at Rs 81.56 as against its guidance of Rs 81.07.
For the quarter ended March 2008 (Q4), it has posted net profit of Rs 1,249 crore versus Rs 1,231 crore in previous quarter and revenue at Rs 4,542 crore versus Rs 4,271 crore.
Operating margin stood at 32.54% versus 32.60% while projection was at 32.8%. Other income was at Rs 139 crore and tax provision reported at Rs 211 crore. BFSI contributed 33.9% to Q4 revenues as against 36.8% in Q3.
The company says they have added one USD 300 million client in Q4 and in total, added 40 clients during the quarter. Net addition of employees stood at 2,596.
Guidance
FY09 revenues seen at Rs 19894-20214 crore
FY09 EPS at Rs 92.30-93.90
Q1 revenues seen at Rs 4570-4582 crore
Q1 EPS seen at Rs 20.73 Vs Rs 21.83 in Q4 (De-growth Of 5%)

Sensex clocks 2nd highest point gain; up over 6%

It was a day of absolute strength for the markets as they closed near the high point of the day breaching some important psychological levels. Sensex has breached 16,000 mark while the Nifty closed above 4850 levels. Both Sensex and Nifty up 6% each. It was the second biggest single day point gain for Sensex. Heavy buying was seen in scrips across sectors.

The broader markets are also following the suit and the midcap index closed with a bump up of 6%.

All the BSE sector indices closed in green; IT, realty, bank stocks were among the top gainers of the day.

The cues from global peers were encouraging as most of the Asian markets ended in green as US market picked up another triple-digit gain yesterday with the Dow gaining 187 points.
JP Associates, Reliance Energy, DLF, Unitech, ICICI Bank, Tata Power, TCS Infosys, Satyam, Reliance Communication, Tata Steel, SAIL, were among the gainers.HCL Tech, HDFC Bank, BHEL, ABB, L&T, Hindalco also ended higher.
Sensex closed up 928.09 points or 6.07% at 16217.49, and the Nifty up 267.65 points or 5.81% at 4877.50.
About 2180 shares have advanced, 818 shares declined, and 62 shares are unchanged.

Mkts end with hefty losses; Sensex below 16,000

Sensex closed down 566.56 points or 3.42% at 15975.52, and the Nifty down 149.80 points or 3.04% at 4771.60.

Mkt sees second biggest fall ever; Sensex slips over 5%

It was extremely weak day for the markets wherein the Sensex and Nifty opened with huge gap down on the back of weak cues from the global markets. All the key indices traded in deep red through the day barring pharma and auto index which were holding up in green till mid trading session but slipped in late trade.
Banking, realty, power, capital goods, metal and IT stocks were the worst hit counters today. Broader markets also were weak in line with the frontline counters giving abysmal breadth to the markets. On the volume front, the markets disappointed once again.
Sensex ended down 900.84 points or 5.12% at 16677.88, and the Nifty closed down 270.50 points or 5.18% at 4953. About 524 shares have advanced, 2466 shares declined, and 55 shares are unchanged.

budget 08

The Finance Minister has spoken and the market has given its verdict. At least without reading the fineprint, the market was down 350 points. Some obvious disappointments were short-term capital gains tax going up and of course the large debt waiver from public sector banks to the tune of Rs 60,000 crore.
There have been some reliefs as well and some positive steps like excise cuts for many sectors like auto, FMCG, pharmaceuticals and there has been personal consumption increase that is expected after the tax cuts.

Use every dip to buy for investment.

I feels the markets could move up from here as there are quite a few expectations from the main budget after the popular Railway budget.Possibly about 400-500 points up form here in the next two days. Investors should buy midcaps only if they have a long term view on the stocks. Otherwise,I think there are enough largecap stocks which are available at very decent discounts, especially after this correction.

sensex ended up

Sensex ended up 301.50 points or 1.74% at 17650.57, and the Nifty closed up 89.95 points or 1.76% at 5200.70. About 1211 shares have advanced, 1737 shares declined, and 87 shares are unchanged. BSE midcap ended flat at 7594.41 and smallcap was down 0.72% at 9526.28.

Mkts end in red: Bank, IT, auto stocks down

The markets closed in red with a sharp cut tracking its Asian peers. Selling pressure was seen in scrips across sectors. IT, oil & gas, power, auto stocks are top losers. The BSE midcap and smallcap indices also closed lower giving market an extremely negative breadth. Sensex closed down naerly 400 points.
On a weekly basis both the Sensex and Nifty wre down nearly 4%.
Sensex closed down 368.46 points or 2.08% at 17366.22, and the Nifty down 78.25 points or 1.51% at 5113.55.
About 1040 shares have advanced, 1895 shares declined, and 97 shares are unchanged.
The BSE Midcap Index ended at 7,594.45 down 1%.
The BSE Smallcap Index ended at 9,595.41 down 1%.

Markets end weak

It was extremely volatile and weak day for the markets wherein the Sensex and Nifty both traded flat across yesterday's closing level and finally settled down on weak note.
Sensex ended down 62.04 points or 0.35% at 17464.89, and the Nifty closed down 12.90 points or 0.25% at 5120.35. On BSE, about 590 shares advanced, 2369 shares declined, and 52 shares were unchanged.

Market end strong but off day's high

The markets opened with impressive gap up today on the back of good amount buying seen in the realty, IT, capital goods and metal space coupled with favourable cues from the global markets. Sensex and Nifty traded extremely strong in the first half of trade but could not maintain its gains and gave up gains on account of some profit booking seen in the FMCG, metals and pharma stocks at higher levels and finally shut shop with significant gains.
BSE smallcaps and midcaps were also very strong in todays trade and the market breadth was also positive with advance decline ratio of 6:1. Volume was relatively muted today.

markets smart recovery

It was a strong day for the markets after few consecutive weak sessions. The markets witnessed smart recovery in the second half of trade after lacklusture performance in early trade on the back of heavy buying in the scrips across sectors led by IT, metal, auto and oil & gas.
The rally was mainly dominated by the large caps as the midcaps and smallcaps are still finding difficult to attract investors attention. Capital good, banking, power and realty counters remained subdued for most part of the day. Market breadth was negative however very thin and the volume was also truncated on the first day of February expiry.

todays market

It was yet another weak and disappointing day for the markets which opened on weak and inconclusive note and traded under pressure through the day and finally ended with a deep cut. Oil & gas, realty, power and auto scrips were the worst hit counters however all the BSE indices ended in red.
Midcaps and smallcaps are still finding difficult to attract investors attention and both the indices closed with over 2% decline. Market breadth was negative through out the day and the volume was also not very impressive.